Worsens Vonage's speed

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Archive Heibel-Ticker PLUS

" Back to overview

22.09.2006:
______________________________________________

H E I B E L - T I C K E R P L U S

F I N A N Z I N F O R M A T I O N E N

- Just a tad better -
______________________________________________

GERMAN LIBRARY: ISSN 1862-5436

Volume 1 - Issue 38 (09/22/2006)
Frequency of publication: weekly Friday / Saturday
* Please set the font Courier *
(-;______________________________________________;-)

I N H A L T

01. INFO-KICKER: SPECIAL ANALYSIS OF THE AUTOMOTIVE MARKET
02. HOW THE STOCK MARKET TICKS: MASTERCARD OVER SPEED
03. OUTLOOK: STAY CAUTION: STAY IN TECH & FINANCE
04. RISK DISTRIBUTION IN THE DEPOT: MEDTRONIC, LEONI, BIJOU BRIGITTE,
POSCO, OMV
05. READER QUESTIONS: ALSTOM, SOLAR FACTORY, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
06. OBSERVED VALUES
07. CHARTTECHNIK DOW JONES, DAX & GOLD, oil, $, €, Yen, Nikkei
08. DISCLAIMER / EXCLUSION OF LIABILITY AND RISK INFORMATION
09. REGISTRATION / DE-REGISTRATION

==============================================================
01. INFO-KICKER: SPECIAL ANALYSIS OF THE AUTOMOTIVE MARKET
==============================================================

Dear stock exchange friends,

It has not been as exciting as it is now for a long time
Stock exchange. I hardly had the Heibel ticker last Friday
finished, the Detroit news broke on me
in.

Detroit, you will know, is the capital of the United States
of cars: Ford and General Motors have their headquarters there.
I have heard about the successful turnaround at General Motors
The subscribers of the
Heibel-Ticker PLUS sit on 30% book profit.

Now there are developments at Ford that made me curious.
Bad news after the other whizzed through them
Media. At some point I became suspicious and got the
A closer look at messages. The result: at Ford too
slowly taking the right steps - but it notices
Hardly anyone in the financial world.

To make the general condition of the automotive market better
To be able to assess, I have one on Monday
Special analysis about DaimlerChrysler and BMW from Germany,
Renault and Peugeot from France, Honda and Toyota from Japan
as well as Ford and General Motors from the USA.

But that's not all: In today's issue I am investigating
the Mastercard speeding violation. Of course they were
there are adverse circumstances, the Mastercard to this infraction
have caused. More on this in Chapter 02 - Review.

In the outlook today I have a detailed analysis of the
Financial markets made and in particular the situation at the
Commodity markets as well as the bond market are considered. I think,
we are good for the next few months with our portfolio
armed.

I am glad that you answered my call, me again
to send more reader questions and deposit examples. This today
The portfolio analyzed shows exemplary diversification
- only due to the current weakness in the energy market
I would degrade cyclical stocks a little.

The reader's questions deal with further individual values,
one or the other of which will certainly also be for you
interesting is.

I wish you a stimulating reading.

take share, you
Stock exchange note

Stephan Heibel

Editor in Chief and
Editor of the
Heibel ticker

P.S .: Let me share your opinion, criticism or
Knowing suggestions for improvement (even praise is welcome ;-)
and write to me at [email protected]

==============================================================
02. HOW THE STOCK MARKET TICKS: MASTERCARD OVER SPEED
==============================================================

Have you ever used that while driving a car
Exceed maximum speed? For those of you
to whom this is a completely unknown process: your author can
Give you all the details ... especially the detail that
You won't be there any earlier than usual. Because either
They are flashed, waved out by the police and have to
listen to an endless moral sermon, or you
miss the exit and take a detour that takes the
destroys the desired time gain.

Your author believes that there are stocks that too
rise quickly. Mastercard, for example, only started working in June
the stock market and has since increased by 45%. Though I expect
the shares by the summer of next year by a further 40%
will increase, I consider the previous price increase to be too
fast. I'm afraid Mastercard has the top speed
trespass. I recommend the Heibel-Ticker PLUS subscribers to
the 45% price gain to realize and the position to be realized
silver.

Mastercard went public in June of this year.
Shortly before that, the IPO (Initial Public Offering) was
Vonage, the VoIP provider (Voice-over-Internet Protocol -
Telephoning over the Internet) went down in my pants. Vonage
has investor greed for this latest sexy topic in the world
Internet exploited and brought its shares to the overpriced
Stock exchange.

Let me go into the background a little: If
a company goes public, then a bank goes public
Help that calculates an estimated company value.
Then you determine how many shares this one
Should represent company value and share that
Company value by the number of shares. So you get
an estimated price of the shares.

These stocks are now being offered to investors. There are
a subscription period during which investors express their interest in the
Can announce shares. In this subscription period then takes place
fine-tuning the share price: the greater the demand for
the shares, the sooner the selling price of the individual can be
Shares still to be raised.

Vonage operates in a business area that is “in”. Everyone
Technology funds, any growth-oriented hedge fund
and a large number of speculative private investors
subscribed to Vonage shares. As a result, the
Selling price (issue price) increased further and further.
Eventually the shares were sold for $ 17.

The first day the shares are then released on the stock market
were tradable, investors found that the price was a lot
was too high for the number of shares issued. So much was
not worth the company, the price fell on the first day
13 %.

At the time, you were warned about this IPO in the Heibel ticker.
Telephoning will soon be a part of our lives
For which we are no longer willing to pay. It is one
A matter of course. There is not much money to take with you
deserve - as you did my analysis on 3 U Telekom
(see Chapter 04 - Risk diversification).

However, investors had been blinded by the argument in
investing a modern internet company. Vonage is one
modern internet company, but doesn't make any money. Well until today
the price has fallen further, meanwhile the share stands at
$ 7.09, which is 58% lower than the first day.

Most of the price fall occurred in the first
Weeks, so the Vonage IPO sets the mood for
IPOs had worsened. The next IPO, that is
by Mastercard, was offered to investors like sour beer. To
Nobody wanted to keep their hands on the Vonage experience
Burn an IPO.

The consequence was that the shares of Mastercard were extremely cheap
were priced. And even at the low price you could
not even all of the shares are sold. So
It took another two months to get all the shares out of the
Stock of the issuing banks in the day-to-day business to the man
were brought.

By then, however, it had been shown what a good one
Company is Mastercard. Growth in the financial sector
Showing 10% p.a. is already extraordinary. And thereby
To bet on mass business, that is relative
Independent of the economic cycle, the stock has become a favorite of the world
Investors made.

Suddenly some funds had to buy shares from Mastercard,
although these began to rise. And that is still today
Case: from August 1st to the present day the rate is up 45%
jumped. That's 45% in just seven weeks.

Now we come to a point where greed comes in:
"More, more!" She screams in the back of my head!
“We can hit the $ 100 target as early as November
to reach..."

I think all of you know that voice, don't you? Well, you
The author has got used to interpreting this voice as a warning.
The price increase occurred without any consolidation phase, without
any correction. As if Mastercard has found the cash cow
or got a money printing machine up and running. But
neither is the case, it is ultimately only about
a technical response to what was going on at the time of
IPO took place.

Usually all funds that have such a share in it
Portfolio could take up at the IPO with the share served. There
however, after the Vonage IPO, the fear of IPOs persisted
institutional investors back with their subscriptions.
The consequence was that the shares were with other investors
were accommodated. As the institutional investors then
found that they definitely have this stock in their portfolio
the price rose incessantly.

It is, so to speak, a squeeze. So the course will
squeezed upwards. Not the evaluation is meanwhile the
Reason for the price increase, but the oversized demand for
the Mastercard shares. Demand snatches up every share
which is for sale on the stock exchange.

At some point this squeeze will expire, and it will work itself out
show that the price has risen faster than allowed.
A few momentum investors were collected along the way,
So investors who are looking for a long-term price increase are not too
are in use. These will show up at the first sign of
say goodbye to declining momentum and to a falling one
Lead course. When momentum investors say goodbye, will
so the course will fall. I call that a detour on the
Way to $ 100.

But even if you check out the Mastercard rating
look: I think 10% growth can be achieved with one
P / E ratio of 20 to be valued. The estimated P / E for the year
However, 2007 is already 21. From a valuation point of view, today can
there is no longer such a large price increase. When investors are
Again, focus on the assessment level, you will become one
prevent further price rise. You will put the stock aside
wave and let it linger for a few months until that
Business has evolved into valuation.

The momentum is still okay. Mastercard still has
neat swing and there is no sign of the squeeze
could end soon. But as I said: 45% in 7 weeks is one
Speeding and I'm expecting that soon
just punishment for it. Escape the punishment and
sell half of your Mastercard position today. For
the rest you put a tight stop loss at $ 64.

Nobody is yet impoverished in terms of realized profits - probably
but unrealized gains that turn into losses
turned. So sell.


SPECULATION TAX

On this occasion, a word about the speculation period: Always
again I hear the argument: "I can't sell yet,
because I am still in the speculation period ”.
That argument is nonsense. Of course I try for you
Find plants with a time horizon of 12 to 18 months,
so you don't have to pay any speculation tax. Let
but there are no price losses that are greater than that
any speculative tax that you would have to pay.

In other words, I like to pay speculative tax because it
is a sign that I have successfully speculated. How many
did not realize their big profits in 2000
Afraid of the few percent speculation tax. You all have
Have to watch how big profits turn into catastrophic losses
were. From today's perspective, they would all love to have them
Speculative tax paid if only the then profits
would have been realized.

So: don't worry about the speculative tax, pay
Just do them and be proud of them, so speculated
to have.


REVIEW

The US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had the result on Wednesday
announced at the Federal Reserve meeting: The US key interest rate will
leave unchanged at 5.25%. For the regular readers of the
Heibel ticker this is no surprise, I've had this since
Months.

And with my next prognosis, I will everyone else
Be way ahead again: The interest rate of 5.25% is high!
The oil price has collapsed, as has the gold price. The US
Real estate market is brought back to a reasonable level and
economic growth threatens to slow down. What the
Hell does the key rate at 5.25%? While in the press
It is still being discussed why the key interest rate no longer continues
is raised, I wonder when will the
first rate cut will take place? It will be until December
last, because historically the first rate cut follows
around 6 months after the last increase? Or is Bernanke
clever enough to recognize its success and oversteer
to prevent? I have a lot of confidence in Bernanke - so why not
already the first rate cut in November?

The energy sector has had a bit of a backlash this week
experienced. After the oil price is in a line from $ 76 up
had fallen to 60 US dollars, there was now a short pause and
stocks rebounded slightly. Nevertheless: With 60.98 US
Dollar is trading at a 5 month low and so are you
will find out at your gas station about the low fuel prices
looking forward.

We are in an exciting market phase. Bond prices
have increased, the return is lower than before the last
Rate hikes. What does this mean for the economy?
Which financial stocks will offer the best in the next few months?
Opportunities and what should you stay away from?

In the following chapter I have an extensive snapshot
that addresses all of these questions.


==============================================================
03. OUTLOOK: STAY CAUTION: STAY IN TECH & FINANCE
==============================================================

The economic downturn is coming, I have no doubt about it. Because
the key rate of 5.25% is too high for the still weak
US economy. Bernanke achieved his goal: Die
The speculative bubble in the real estate market did not arise. In
the past few years when the job market changed despite
The world's best could not improve as the economy did not improve
Consumers (yes, I mean the Americans) their consumerism
finance the real estate profits achieved. Debt rescheduling and
Real estate speculation fed the American
Consumers with more and more cash, which of course they do too
always consumed.

This source of finance has now dried up. Bernanke has with his
high interest rate ensured that no further
Price increases can be achieved on the real estate market. Luckily
no price collapse has yet to be seen, because otherwise would
some financings go down the drain. But currently
the soft landing seems to have succeeded.

FALLING RAW MATERIAL PRICES

These days, commodity prices are falling. Gold and oil are only
two examples of the sudden oversupply. The hurricanes
The season was very mild this year, oil and gas stocks
are at record levels. Or in other words: there is more
Supply as demand! When was the last time you did that about a
Heard of raw materials?

But the warehouses are also full on the aluminum market. And
the ethanol boom, which led to an overproduction of grain,
Corn, soy and the like is currently also falling into
a difficult position: with oil around $ 60
the substitution of oil with ethanol is hardly worthwhile.

When it comes to the price of oil, there are a multitude of market players who are one
Influence the price development. Among other things, the
OPEC, which only announced again last week, the
leave the daily flow rate unchanged. Despite the
So currently abundant oil will continue to vigorously
promoted. Of course, this continues to depress the price of oil.

But the price of oil will not fall well below $ 60,
because OPEC has announced several times in the past few weeks
let that its not at an oil price below $ 60
is located. Before the oil gets too cheap, OPEC will prefer it
reduce the daily flow rate.

Sure, loads of hedge funds are looking at a rising oil price
set and must now sell their respective futures.
Hold a short-term overshoot of $ 60
i for likely. I think at $ 56 a barrel
Crude Oil is the interest of other speculators big enough to
to get back in and make the small jump to $ 60
to take with you. At $ 56, the drop in price becomes mine
So estimate to end.

Why is OPEC currently targeting the US $ 60 mark?
Well, according to my research, it's in at $ 60
about the limit that alternative energy sources are attractive
makes. Our world is fueled with oil, and there is one for that
functioning infrastructure. Only when the oil is significantly more expensive
is, one will think intensively about alternatives.

In the coming months, the projects around the
Tar sands in Canada, the coal-fired power plants and the alternatives
Energies are challenged. Where until recently without with
flinch the budgets were screwed up,
the project manager now has to put up with the question of whether
the project is even in the case of a falling
Calculate the oil price.

The third quarter of this year ends in September. Funds
will publish their portfolio lists again and there will
Any fund manager would be embarrassed if in his portfolio
there are many names from the energy industry. they may
so expect oil stocks to continue over the next several weeks
sold. Take advantage of the small recovery phase of this
Days to further reduce your respective stocks. The
The process will continue in October.

In the course of October I will slowly go back to it
Keep an eye out for bargains. I think Devon, Statoil and
Chevron, the three companies that made the great oil discovery in the Gulf
of Mexico would then become the largest
Have price potential. I will write an appropriate one
Note position in the watch list.

RECREATIONAL RALLY OR U-TURN?

This week, cyclical stocks have suddenly made gains
recorded. I always talk about the threatening one
Economic slowdown and rate to buy non-cyclical stocks and
nevertheless, cyclical stocks are rising. Is that now the one
U-turn or just a little recovery rally?

All you need to answer this question is the
Look at the bond market. The return of the 30-year US
Government bond is in the past week from 4.97% to 4.74
% fallen, no broken in! The return always falls
if the corresponding bonds are in greater demand,
so their price rises. Because, to get the fixed rate of interest
To get bond, investors are in this market phase
willing to pay more and more money - what the total return
lowers.

In other words, investors are buying bonds. And vigorously.
And that despite the fact that the all-time high is within reach at the Dow Jones
Is near. If long-term returns go down, then
Investors do not expect inflation, but rather falling
Interest.

Inflation would have to be fought with interest rates rising further
become. However, the high inflation rates that are in the US
were mainly caused by the high raw material prices,
are currently no longer an issue: The correction is due to May
Fear of inflation has swept off the table in commodity markets.

But the low raw material prices are a great help
for the economy. Lower raw material prices lead to
lower production costs and thus to larger ones
Profit margins in the companies. And higher
Corporate profits can be returned in through higher salaries
to coin an increasing demand. So everything is fine
or? The economy can now pick up again before it
was weakened at all ...?

No, it's not that simple. In the past week
there was a real run on bonds. The return is so hefty
I like that it gives me the impression that the
American investors fear an economic slowdown
to have. Otherwise they would buy stocks. The shares of the
Companies that benefit from a good economy.

No, we're not there yet. To do this, the short term
Interest rate, i.e. the key rate, is still too high.
Financing costs are too high. The liquidity is too scarce
for a sustainable upswing.

And the professionals are at work in the bond market. That is, the
Bond market gives much clearer signals than that
Stock market. So if the stock market takes a few days
rises, then that doesn't mean that there are all problems
are overcome. But when the bond market goes up, that
So yields are falling, then that certainly means that
there is still an economic downturn ahead of us.

And with that I repeat my recommendation from the previous one
Weeks: Saddle up from commodity and cyclical stocks
Energy market on the non-cyclical stocks and on the
Technology and financial sectors. Only be in these areas
Make a profit by the holiday season. If in the
the economy of the next few months of weak economic data
Afflicting the US, cyclical stocks are once again taking the hit
Wheels advised.

Only when Bernanke gives the sign that he is ready, that
Lowering the key interest rate will end this market phase
can. Until then, please stick to the non-cyclical
Area on as well as in sectors with a special boom like the
Technology sector.


NEW TRADING IDEAS

FEDEX

FedEx announced its quarterly results. The forecasts were
exceeded, at the same time the prospects for the
current and the coming quarter. As long as I use FedEx
know, it successfully uses this strategy over and over again:
Lower expectations and then deliver better numbers than
expected. Hardly any other company has mastered this
Games as good as FedEx.

It amazes me, however, that the stockbrokers keep coming back
fall in. Well, there are always new ones coming
Hot spurs to the stock market for whom the game is new. We can
benefit from this because FedEx will, as every year, also in
Participate in the trend again this year, online
shop and get the goods delivered.

The freight forwarder FedEx will be one again this year
Record “surprising” good Christmas business. in the
FedEx's rate is from September to last year
December increased by 50%.

Take advantage of the fall in the price of FedEx shares and collect money
a few stocks at prices below $ 106. aim
are $ 130 through 12/06.

FedEx (FDX, 912029, buy under 83 EUR / 106 USD) target 130 USD
until 12/06


OLD

Nabors and Statoil sold with 11% minus.

Foster Wheeler (FWLT, A0DNLG, 28.70 euros) bought too
an average of 32 euros, since the drilling performance of the
Companies are now increasingly in demand again.


==============================================================
04. RISK DISTRIBUTION IN THE DEPOT: MEDTRONIC, LEONI, BIJOU BRIGITTE,
POSCO, OMV
==============================================================

Only those who have a diversified portfolio, who in their own
Depot has achieved a healthy risk diversification
Sudden corrections like these days are still good
be able to sleep. There is only speculation here in the Heibel ticker
a small part of the property. The rest will be on solid feet
posed.

An analysis of the risk diversification of the 5 largest now follows
Positions of a reader. I will focus less on that
individual values ​​are much more relevant than the sectors in which
which they manage. Let me have your thoughts on this
Analysis know and send me your 5 greatest positions
to [email protected] Please sign
with your first name and the city in which you live. These
Information is then published.

==========


ANALYSIS: Medtronic, Leoni, Bijou Brigitte, OMV

Hello Mr. Heibel,

me would be your opinion on my five greatest positions in
interest my depot. But besides the
Industry distribution (I have a total of 15 values ​​in my depot)
also your assessment for the next 18 to 24 months:

Medtronic (WKN 858486) share of the depot 15.7%
Leoni (WKN 540888) share in the depot 9.0%
Bijou Brigitte (WKN 522950) share in the depot 8.4%
Posco (WKN 893094) share in the depot 8.4%
OMV (WKN 874341) share in the depot 8.2%

Thank you very much, Heiko from Heidelberg


ANSWER:

No individual item should have a greater than 20% deposit
to have. At 15%, your largest position, Medtronic, is still in
green area.

The total number of your positions is also one at 15
reasonable number, from 20 different positions it will be for
a private investor confusing in my opinion.

MEDTRONIC

Medtronic is an American medical technology company with
a market value of $ 54 billion. For sales of 11.5 billion
USD, the market value is quite high, due to the high
The profit margin of 24%, however, keeps the P / E ratio within limits at 20.
In my opinion, the rating is okay.

In the next 5 years the company wants to join
grow an average of 15% p.a., so a PER of 15 -
30 possible. After some problems in 2004
meanwhile the situation normalized, and the company has
Exceeded the critical minimum sales volume of USD 10 billion,
so that a jump in profit was achieved.

With this in mind, the stock still has good potential for that
next months. In particular, the sword of Damocles
Recession, or at least the economic downturn, is going to be good
soon trigger a run on pharmaceutical companies, including Medtronic
will be sought in this context. So I can
a price increase of up to 50% in the next 12
Months imagine. That would be a rate of 69 USD or 54 EUR
mean (currently 46 USD / 36 EUR).

LEONI

The German company offers wires and cables as well
On-board networks for cars. With DaimlerChrysler, BMW and
General Motors (= Opel) belong to the largest German car manufacturers
to the regular customers. Sales grow by 25% in the current year
on, but as early as next year the growth should increase to 8%
fall behind. In my opinion, the P / E ratio of 10 is closed
low for this development, a PER of 15 would be
justified. That is almost equivalent to one
Course doubling chance. Especially since General Motors is now his
Has done homework and will be back in the coming months
production should pick up.

The argument that the increased copper, gold and
Silver prices nibble on the company's profit margin, let
I do not apply. The price increases are only signs of the
increased demand and can be passed on to the end customer
become.

BIJOU BRIGITTE

The company operates a chain of around 800 stores in
who sell costume jewelry at home and abroad. With a
Growth of 20% p.a. the company is in the fast lane.
The shops are particularly popular with young people.

The P / E ratio of 20 is quite reasonable because it
corresponds to the growth rate. Currently it looks like
can grow without affecting profit margins
be held, so the share continues to grow.
However, share price growth should be the same
Adjust sales growth of 20% p.a. The times of
Price doubling (2004 and again in 2005) is over for the time being.

POSCO

The largest steel producer from Korea depends heavily on the
Korean, then from the Chinese economy. China
produces more and more steel itself, although the quality
can't keep up with Posco's steel. But for that
Chinese steel is sufficient for most applications.

Therefore Posco is currently struggling to keep sales increasing
increase. Posco also has to compete with the prices at the moment
Cheap steel from China will compete. That makes matters worse
Scandal surrounding the owners of Hyundai and Kia was added to him
Accused of corruption a few months ago and he's been sitting ever since
in jail. As the main buyer of Posco steel in Korean
Domestically, this scandal naturally also affects Posco.

Although the valuation level with a P / E ratio of only 7 is very good
is low, I am afraid that this company is in the
to go through difficult times in the coming 6 months
Has. Just a picking up global economy that has demand for
would promote Chinese products and find a solution to the
Auto scandals in Korea would put Posco's course back on its feet
do. Otherwise, Posco's good times are over. I
would downsize the position due to this uncertainty.

OMV

The Austrian energy company has a special one
Focus on petroleum and natural gas. Because of a
unprofitable subsidiary in Romania (Petrom) has the company
currently experiencing a slump in profits. The problems
but should be fixed soon, according to the company. The
Sales growth is currently decent at 20%, but already in
A decline in sales is feared in the coming year. So is
a low P / E ratio is appropriate.

The share is currently trading at a P / E ratio of 8. For the time being, I see
no catalysts to give the course a further boost
could. In a 6 month perspective, I would buy the shares
to sell. However, in a two-year perspective, the company is
well positioned to participate in the growth in the Eastern bloc,
new impulses could come from there. But at the earliest in one
half a year, by then the course should in my opinion
correct even further.

I would avoid OMV for the time being, but when I join, I would become one
wait half a year.

CONCLUSION

Your portfolio is wonderfully diversified. The only
I see overlap with the wire manufacturer Leoni and the
Steel producer Posco, as both are highly cyclical.
With Medtronic and Bijou Brigitte, you have two non-cyclicals
Shares in the portfolio. OMV as an energy company is also
a useful addition in the long term. Must on the structure
So don't change anything.

Maybe you could get Posco through someone else
international steel producers such as the
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) or Mittal Steel (MT)
replace.


==============================================================
05. READER QUESTIONS: ALSTOM, SOLAR FACTORY, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
==============================================================

I am happy to answer all reader questions. Indeed
I only publish the questions that are of interest to you
could. Therefore, please note the following:

Just ask me about companies whose market capitalization is
is at least 100 million euros or US dollars. With smaller ones
Companies are in danger of being named in the
Heibel ticker affects the price. I respect
therefore always on the minimum size of the company.

Just ask me about one company, please. I offer im
Chapter 04 - Diversification the portfolio analysis to 5 values,
there you can ask about a meaningful depot structure
put. In this chapter, however, I like to go into specific ones
Questions about individual values ​​/ certificates or raw materials. Also
You can ask me general questions at any time.

I look forward to your questions, because that's the only way to get one
Insight into your level of knowledge and into the problems you are facing
and can move the Heibel ticker according to these topics
shape. But please understand that I'm on
Reluctant to ask questions about a whole list of penny stocks
answer.

Please send your questions to leserfragen / at / heibel-
ticker /./ de. Many Thanks.

=================

Question 1: Alstom
Question 2: Solar Factory
Question 3: Alternative Energy Sources Inc.


QUESTION 1: Alstom

ALSTOM (Paris ALO.PA/ISIN FR0010220475)


Dear Mr. Heibel,

I am happy to use your stock analysis service.
I have had Alstom shares in mine for six months
Depot. Since the turnaround and the exit of the state, I've been
I'm not sure about the further course development.

I look forward to your usual precise analysis.

With best regards from Vienna
Andreas


ANSWER 1:

Alstom builds power plants (e.g. nuclear power) and trains (e.g. the
TGV). The French are notoriously on the drip of the state
Subsidies and aid. The loss of 628 million euros in
Last year this year was due to vigorous
State aid converted into a meager plus of 178 million.
The state immediately sold its 21% stake.

The buyer, telecom and construction company Bouygues, does not want to
buy further shares in Alstom. Alstom's share price is
has increased significantly since the state's financial injection.
The stock is currently trading at a PER of 42, based on the
Expectations for 2006 the P / E ratio is only 22.

The growth is not due to restructuring in the company
traced back.

The majority shareholder does not want to buy any more shares. There
May business be good right now and the stock rolled into one
Note an uptrend, but I wouldn't do it in the long term
put this company. There are currently messages splashing around
coming in from business deals, incoming orders, etc.
report in anticipation of the course for several months
already increasing. There were no really positive surprises
more.

Use the price increases these days for an exit. FIG
for example, has much better growth opportunities there
the corporate structure there has recently been completely turned inside out
was - and that without government aid.


QUESTION 2: Solar factory

Hello Mr. Heibel,

I have a question about the solar factory.

Contrary to the stop you set (9.70
€) not sold. Then this rattled down to almost 8.x euros
by.

Recommend selling the stock as it is considerably lower
Courses are to be expected, or do you think that here this
Down limit has already been tested.

My entry was at € 10.65

Thank you for your reply!

With best regards, Ralf from Landau


ANSWER 2:

I think the solar factory is pretty much bombed out
so it won't fall much further. Indeed
I still expect turbulent courses for the next three months
in the energy sector, so also the course of the solar factory
can collapse again at short notice.

In a year's time, the positive ones should be
Express business prospects in a significantly higher rate.
I still consider a course of 20 euros to be possible
(today 9.25 euros). So it depends on yours
Sensitivity to pain: If you are more likely to be active in the stock market
are and sleep poorly when a position goes into the red
slips, then you should still be at rates above 9.30 euros
to sell. But if you sit out a year easily, then you can
You hold your position.


QUESTION 3: Alternative Energy Sources Inc.

Dear Mr. Heibel!

Congratulations on your really successful newsletter!

I have a question for you:
What do you think of Alternative Energy Sources Inc. (A0J225)?

Thanks in advance.

Sincerely, Christian


ANSWER 3:

"The dogs bite the last" - the company was only in
founded this year and has become a publicly traded company
Bought company in order to subsequently issue new shares.
If it is done skilfully, a lot will come of it
Money in the company's coffers.

I am familiar with this approach from companies that
Shareholders pull a little money out of their pockets and someday
all sang and soundless disappear from the scene. always
Again, readers ask me about such companies.
A reader has never seen his money again.

What is important for this scam is the story, that is
Business area of ​​the company. Alternative Energy Sources
jump on the bandwagon of alternative energies and
"plans" to manufacture ethanol. A corresponding
Factory built and then operated. A laudable one
Project, but I still lack the feasibility.

These steps are accompanied by a flood of news.
A distinction must be made between who publishes the reports.
All changes in the corporate structure must take place
a government agency called Edgar will be reported to this
then published automatically. Half of the messages too
Alternative energy are such messages. The other half
were published in the US by PR Newswire, a distribution list
of company news. Any company can do it for money
publish any message it wants. There are
no authority to check the correctness. The following applies in Germany
same for dpa-AFX.

So: You can already imagine from this list
that I don't think much of this stock. There are the frauds
The door and gate open. In addition, the business area
Ethanol due to its currently in free fall
Oil price for the next three months completely unattractive. At
the stock market will avoid this topic.

==============================================================
06. OBSERVED VALUES
==============================================================

Please also note the customer area on mine
Website at www.heibel-ticker.de. there you find
current charts with my updated ones
Assessments.

Because of the lack of clarity, I have the ad
now something changed. Please read the following information:
Name (US abbreviation, WKN, purchase price, date of recommendation)

FINANCE
TECHNOLOGY
ENERGY
JAPAN
RAW MATERIALS
NOT CYCLIC
TURNAROUND
FIXED INCOME

==========

NEW

FedEx (FDX, 912029, buy under 83 EUR / 106 USD) target 130 USD
until 12/06


==========

FINANCE

Paychex (PAYX, 868284, sold with 1.7% minus)

Goldman Sachs (GS, $ 150, 6/23/06)
Currently price 167.15 USD

Mastercard (MA, 47.50 USD, 6/23/06)
Exchange rate currently 69.05 US dollars, target 100 US dollars by mid-07

UBS AG (UBS, UB0BL6, EUR 44.75 / USD 53.87, May 12, 2006)
Current rate 46.24 EUR / 58.86 USD

We sold Paychex with a slight minus. The ones from me
expected price-driving arguments such as high interest rates for
the payroll handlers don't have the desired effect
had.

Mastercard was flashed this week. For the non-
Motorists among you: If you drive too fast, you run the risk of
to be flashed by the police. The Mastercard course has
in the three months that we have the share in the depot by 45%
increased. The more detailed background for this price increase
you can read about in today's review.

Although I expect a rate of $ 100 by mid-2007,
I consider the speed of the current price increase to be too
fast. A correction must soon follow. To sell
You therefore get half of your Mastercard position immediately and
put a stop loss at $ 64 on the rest.

Goldman Sachs and UBS please hold on, I'm still waiting
quite a bit of price rise.


TECHNOLOGY

Qualcomm (QCOM, 883121, EUR 27.50 / USD 36, 08/04/06)
Current rate 30.06 EUR / 38.48 USD, target 45.08 USD by May 08.
Use the next price increase to sell.

Marvell Techn. Group (MRVL, 930131, EUR 20 / USD 25, 04/17/06)
Current rate 15.61 EUR / 19.31 USD, target 44.10 USD by the end of 07

Electronic Arts (ERTS, 878372, 38.75 EUR / 47.75 USD, 03/24/06)
Current rate 44.94 EUR / 56.06 USD, Christmas business
take

Microsoft (MSFT, 870747, EUR 22.50 / USD 27.75, 03/17/06)
Price 21.08 EUR / 26.90 USD, waiting for Vista

Apple Computers (AAPL, 865985, EUR 52.33, 01/21/06)
Current rate 58.49 EUR / 75.65 USD, target 105.20 USD by Sept 07

Yahoo! (YHOO, 900103, EUR 20, January 15, 2006, July 21, 2006)
Price currently EUR 20.20, stop loss below EUR 19

Yahoo! got a sales warning for that last Tuesday
current quarter issued. The automotive and financial industries
invest less in advertising, was the reason.

You know my attitude towards online advertising: it still is
Online advertising cheaper and more efficient than anyone else
Forms of advertising. Google is the number 1 advertising space!

In the US, Yahoo! but much more present on the Internet than in
Germany. There is Yahoo! the only one to be taken seriously
Competitor of Google. Yahoo! still on
a new search engine that is being completed
already delayed. Yahoo! must be careful not to connect
to lose to google.

This week's news makes me skeptical. I watch
the management of Yahoo! have been for many years and have
full confidence in their abilities. But off
For security reasons, I will post a Stop Loss on Yahoo!
introduce, because perhaps the capabilities of the
Managements no longer go against those made by Google. if it
really “only one can give”, namely Google, then you have to
we lost our losses at Yahoo! limit.

Please note the stop loss for less than 19 euros.


==========

ENERGY

ABB (ABB, 919730, 10 EUR / 13 USD, 08/04/06)
Current rate 10.43 EUR / 13.26 USD, target 20 EUR / 26 USD up to
Summer 07

Gray Wolf (GW, 866164, EUR 5.75 / USD 7.50, 07/28/06)
Exchange rate currently EUR 5.24 / USD 6.70, target USD 11.90 by spring
07, use recreation for sale

Cameco (CCJ, 882017, 29 EUR, 02/03/06)
Price currently 30.28 EUR / 38.40 USD, stop loss at 26.50 EUR

Headwaters (HW, 909698, 19.20 EUR / 25.85 USD, May 12, 2006)
Current rate 19.60 EUR / 24.74 USD - sold + -0

Nabors Industries (NBR, 662778, EUR 28.25, 01/21/06)
Price currently EUR 23.80, target EUR 50 by the end of the year

Arch Coal (ACI, 908011, bought for EUR 26, $ 33, 8/25/06
Bought at 23.50 EUR / 27.60 USD)
Current rate 21.86 EUR, 28.07 USD, target 33 EUR / 50USD by 12/07

Arch Coal will buy up to 14 million shares (10% of
outstanding shares). That's a clear sign that
the price of that stock has fallen too far. The
Energy supply will be a problem for many decades to come
remain, the coal mine has a value that is higher than the current one
Price is.

The share buyback program is likely to affect the share price of the
move a floor in the next few months, further price losses
So I don't expect any more.

NOTE: Devon, Statoil, and Chevron are used because of their
Oil discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico in October have the greatest price potential
to have.

==========

Selling JAPAN

Kyocera (KYO, 860614, 58 EUR, 07/07/06)
Price currently 66.70 euros

Matsushita (MC, 853666, 16.03 EUR, 01/27/06)
Current rate 16.40 EUR / 20.75 USD

Both companies are at double the PER of their respective
Growth valued. That is already the upper limit that
can be reached. At the same time, the Nikkei stumbled under
his supports.

I would therefore pocket the winnings and go to a later
waiting for a better chance of entry. Kyocera is currently trading at 15
% up, Matsushita with just under 2.3%. It is not yet
got poor from realizing profits. Sell ​​yours
Japan positions and wait for a better one
Entry point.

I hear a lot of positive things about Matsushita in particular
News, new developments, new contracts, etc., but also
good progress with the competition such as
Samsung. Especially in the lucrative plasma
Samsung is currently storming the flat screen business
with inexpensive high-end devices.

So: before any problems with our Japanese
become apparent, please secure your book profits.

==========

RAW MATERIALS

Southern Copper (PCU, A0HG1Y, 70.51 EUR / 85 USD, 03/24/06)
Current rate 68.35 EUR / 87.51 USD, half sold at 76 EUR /
96 USD, the rest sold.

Gold Spot ABN Amro endless certificate (859341, 49 EUR, 02/17/06)
Price currently 45.63 EUR. Hold (see technical analysis on gold)

We also have the last position from Southern Copper
sold. With the hint that things will get worse
I recommended selling yours last week
Stocks. They could again for 89 US dollars or 71 euros
Realize small profits that add up to the already realized 8%
to be added.

I still hold the gold certificate here because it is for me
represents the position of gold in wealth. And who
If you have gold bars and gold coins at home, you will get them
Correction doesn't use it to stand out from the yellow metal too
separate, but waiting for the opportunity to get cheaper
To buy additional prices. Physical gold is not for trading
but a long-term investment for many years.


==========

NOT CYCLIC

Amgen (AMGN, 867900, EUR 52 / USD 66, 07/07/06)
Current rate 56.57 EUR / 72.01 USD,

Whole Foods Market (WFMI, 886391, EUR 49.25 / USD 61.75, June 2, 2006)
Current rate 47.80 EUR / 60.02 USD,

Berentzen Gruppe AG VZ (520163, DE0005201636, 7 EUR, 07/28/06)
Price currently EUR 6.16, target EUR 9.50 by the beginning of 07

These three positions make up that for the next few months
Backbone of the watchlist.

Amgen won a case against in court earlier this week
ImClone, which deals with the rights to the cancer drug Erbitux
went. Amgen's share price jumped 2%.

==========

TURNAROUND

General Motors (GM, 850000, EUR 19 / USD 24, May 12, 2006)
Current rate 24.35 EUR / 30.96 USD, target 40 USD by 07/07

After the sharp price increases in the past few weeks
now a little breather.

I am adding here the speculation with the warrant
Ford one (see special analysis from Monday of this week), there too
at Ford the background is a turnaround speculation:

Ford Call (CK2166, 1.90 EUR, 19.9.06)
Maturity until December 21, 2007, leverage 3.35, volume 61.59%, buyer's premium 15%
Ford base price EUR 5.50, subscription ratio 1: 1
Current rate 1.82 to 1.87, rate from Ford (502391): 6.11 euros

On Monday you could easily get the certificate at rates below 1.90
Buy euros, although in my special analysis I still have one
based on a maximum purchase price of EUR 2.11.

Since then, there have been a number of more that week
further bad news. Still, Ford's course is not
slipped further. The stock exchange rule applies: Bad news
and no price fall = bottoming out. Let's wait for that now
subsequent price increase.

Anyone who has not yet opened a speculative position: It still is
not too late. The falling oil price and one soon to come
Discussions about a falling key interest rate are positive events
for Ford and GM.


==========

FIXED INCOME

GMAC medium-term notes,
7 years, nominal interest rate 5.75%, due September 27, 2010
WKN 908511, ISIN XS0177329603
Bought for 92 EUR on 3/24/06
Price currently EUR 99.80, currently yield 5.836%
Hold.


==============================================================
07. CHART TECHNOLOGY DOW JONES, Dax & GOLD, oil, $, €, Yen, Nikkei
==============================================================

You can find the charts for this in the customer area under
Look up http://heibel-ticker.de/kundenbereich. you
need your email address and your password.


Chart technique

For short-term considerations to determine optimal
Entry or exit times and brands will be the
Chart technique consulted. Here is a brief consideration
some important charts:


Dow Jones Industrial 11,533 points

Two steps forward, one step back - that is almost unnoticed
Dow Jones with this approach within striking distance of his
Annual highs have come. He is only missing up to 11,709 points
176 points.

In the past week there was a sideways movement, the
not until Wednesday did it break out to 11,613 points
led, but was immediately equalized on Thursday.

One support runs at 11,300 points, it's that
previous resistance that was overcome at the end of August. The
The 200-day average is 11,110 points.


DAX 5,962 points

The Dax is in a solid uptrend that is
formed after the W formation in June / July. Consolidations
only take two to three days, then the
Upward trend continued.

Similar to the Dow Jones, the Dax is also within striking distance
new highs for the year. The support at 5,855 points
has held, now an increase to 6,011 points is possible. The
200-day average is 5.708 points.

Gold $ 578.75

The support still holds at USD 575, which is now down
has already proven itself several times. A break through to the bottom would
then to the upper limit of the long-term uptrend
run at $ 531.8.

The lower limit of this started in 2001
Uptrend is at $ 475. A price drop except for this one
The long-term bullish scenario for gold would still mark the mark
never refuting it, it would merely be the exaggeration of the
balance the past 12 months.

The 200-day average at $ 593 was already after
broken at the bottom, so we're going for a longer one
Consolidation a.

Crude Oil $ 59.17

The setback I was expecting to $ 60 per barrel of crude oil
is in full swing. The 200-day moving average is $ 66.42
As expected, did not hold up. A floor should be between the
soil tested in the spring form at 56.30 USD and 60 USD.

I also expect the oil to last longer
Consolidation phase. Never catch a falling knife - for
It's still too early to get in.

US dollar / euro exchange rate 1.2726 USD / EUR

The support at USD / EUR 1.275 is wobbling. For a week
the exchange rate is already just below it.Call yourself
once a long term chart on (5 years) then you will
Realize that there is a shoulder-head-shoulder formation
has formed. The left shoulder became the beginning of the year
2003/2004 subscribed at 1.28 USD / EUR, the head was on
The turn of the year 2004/2005 at 1.36 USD / EUR and now the
right shoulder with her top at 1.29 USD / EUR.

Don't worry about the talk about the indebted US
Household, in Germany and in the EU it doesn't see much
better off. Please watch out for one in the coming weeks
Falling below the repeatedly tested support at 1.25
USD / EUR.

For a consistently strong euro (i.e. a weak US dollar) would be
an early exceeding of 1.29 USD / EUR is necessary. Currently
however, it looks more like the exchange rate will
its sideways movement, falling below 1.275
Leave USD / EUR. Now the acid test is at 1.25 USD / EUR
made. If this support doesn’t last, then you’ll be soon
again rates of 1.15 USD / EUR, my long-term
Purchasing power parity of the two currencies, possible.

Yen / Euro exchange rate 148.55 YEN / EUR

The euro is still trending up against the yen
intact, although the exchange rate stumbled. A
Falling below the 148.2 YEN / EUR mark would be
End the uptrend of the euro and this mark is now in
Range.


Nikkei 15,834 points

200-day average at 15,962 points as well as the multiple
tested support at 16,000 points were down
broken, the next support is only included
14,848 points. If the Nikkei doesn't succeed in the next
Jump over 16,000 points again in days, that's one
slipping again to this lower mark is likely.

A successful stock market week,
take share

Stephan Heibel
http://heibel-ticker.de


mailto: [email protected]

==============================================================
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==============================================================

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